Rugby World Cup 2011

Radike Samo scores for Australia in their win over New Zealand

All the pre-World Cup warm up/Tri Nations matches have now been completed. The squad lists are in. The countdown to the 9^th September and the opening game is well and truly on the horizon. Ireland versus England in Dublin was the final warm up game for the home nations and with England’s terrible record on Irish soil, one win in nine before today, they were out to lay down a marker after the disappointing game against the Welsh last time out. With New Zealand born Riki Flutey perhaps the only big name surprise left out of the England side (due to Danny Care’s untimely injury) manager Martin Johnson wanted to head off to the Southern Hemisphere with a confidence boost. In fact not since Johnson was captain, in the Grand Slam/World Cup winning year of 2003 did the English put the Irish to the sword. Perhaps more importantly was Irelands need to win having gone three straight lacklustre defeats in their warm up games. Discipline will be key in the tight matches, sin binned players usually come at a cost of about ten points, so for Ireland to ship a try during one of those periods will be sending warning signals throughout the country. England came to erase the poor performance of last time out and will take inspiration from this performance as well as the 20-9 win itself.

Have England found a new star in Manu Tuilagi?

England do have injury concerns, taking one or two players not fully fit in the hopes of them being ready later on in the tournament seems the order of the day for several sides. With Captain Lewis Moody and scrum half Ben Youngs being so pivotal Johnson feels this is a risk worth taking. Fitness in the first of the two Wales’ games was criticised, but the performance in the second at Cardiff was poor, forwards aside. For a side that looked so dominant in the Six Nations, (Ireland aside), it was a big come down to lose in this way. England really have to top their group, this way they should avoid the hosts. Whether they can beat a fast moving French side is anyones guess. The England side of the Spring would be confident, this current side perhaps a little less so, but regaining the winning habit will help no end.

Ireland’s biggest problem seems to be in the centres, despite the abundance of talent at back row forward, meshing an effective 12/13 position is a worry for manager Declan Kidney. As shown against the dominant French, giving away penalties is an easy way to lose a game, especially those on a knife edge. Discipline will be key for them in New Zealand. They can take solace from the fact that pre 2007 South Africa also looked poor, before going on to dominate the tournament. Ireland failed to make the knockout stages last time out, a poor showing losing two of four games, (nearly losing to Georgia as well). This time out it will not be easy as they face the always tough tackling USA and a growing Italy. Although I still expect Ireland to qualify from the group, (even on this form), edging out the Azzurri, but it will be as runners up to an ever improving Australia. Whether they can kick on from there will be very difficult as they may well face the improving Springboks in the quarters.

The Welsh sprung a surprise by not only leaving out Martin Williams, but also by naming Sam Warburton as captain at the tender age of 22. A fantastic season may have cemented his place in the side, but Warren Gatland has taken a risk in naming him as the skipper. Back to back wins at home to England and Argentina sees the Welsh off in good form, but with Fiji and Samoa vying for second spot behind Australia, the men from the valleys will have to maintain this good run as well as surviving the attritional war that will be the physical Samoans. Australia should be their target in the next stage.

France have drawn the short straw, initially at least, facing New Zealand in the group stages. Much like England losing to South Africa in 2007, they may well be put to the sword by the host nation, but could very well go all the way to the final should they hit form. Tonga aside they should have a relatively easy passage to the last eight as I do not expect either Canada or Japan to offer much resistance. They will then face the winner of Englands group for a place in the semi finals. Seeded fourth in the current IRB rankings and winning away in Dublin will give the French real belief that they can challenge again this time around. Thirteen survive from the squad beaten in the semis by England in 2007, few would be genuinely surprised should they go one better. Power and pace in the backs would generally be seen to be the French strengths. Fast hard grounds will be as key to their chances as the players form.

Scotland have regrouped from a poor Six Nations campaign to give themselves plenty of confidence in the build up to New Zealand. An opening game against Romania should give the team a big boost, as will the knowledge that their two biggest rivals in the group, England and Argentina play each other the same day in what will surely be a war of attrition with these two big rivals. With the runner up in the group surely playing New Zealand in the quarter finals, winning this group is key. However, despite the improvement, I just cannot see how they can top the group, runners up surely is the ceiling of their ambitions.

No one really expects Argentina to replicate their third place finish of 2007 where they only lost to eventual winners South Africa. Retirements have hit the side hard and they have been in a rebuilding phase since then. The lack of tournament rugby hinders them, surprisingly still to join the Tri Nations series, (2012 is possible). The loss to Wales was hardly confidence boosting, and the fact that they will play the biggest team in the group (England) first up leaves them with no room for error. I still expect them to qualify for the quarters but if England play to potential it will only be as runners up, leaving them with a match surely versus New Zealand.

Australia sprung a surprise by leaving out Matt Giteau, a player who would walk into the majority of Northern Hemisphere sides. Perhaps due to a fall out with the A.R.U? Will they come to rue this decision? With a far from fit Berrick Barnes in the squad they may well qualify as group winners, but from then on they will miss Giteau's skills and influence. With captain Rocky Elsom picked for the squad, but replaced by James Horwill as skipper, the second best side in test rugby according to the rankings will have genuine beliefs that they can do well again, that’s if they can break their English hoodoo, having lost in the last three tournaments, including the final on home soil in 2003. Their first Tri-Nations success in ten years, included a wonderful win at home to the All Blacks will push their confidence through the roof.

The South Africans showed that there are weaknesses in the juggernaught that is New Zealand as they got their only success in the Tri Nations series with a classic win last weekend. Whilst the All Blacks were not at full strength, it was still a huge result for the Springboks and showed that with intensity and a huge scrambling defensive effort, coupled with discipline and a bit of luck no team is unbeatable. However, back on home turf it will be a different story. South African rugby took a bit of a pasting in the opening two games of this series, fielding weakened sides, they gave the fringe players a chance, which did not pay off. A huge ask for them to repeat the win of 2007, even with eighteen members of the victorious squad from last time out selected again, but they should win what looks to be the toughest of the four groups.

New Zealand it seems will never have a better chance of winning a second Rugby World Cup. On home soil, manager Graham Henry has selected the most experienced squad in their history, nine of their squad boasting over 50 caps. Thirteen have played in two World Cups, five of those have starred in three. Daniel Carter has the most points in test history, (pushing Jonny Wilkinson back to second). Looking at some of the players they have left out only emphasises how strong the squad is. They are most people’s outstanding favourites, despite back to back losses to their biggest rivals. New Zealand has been here before, only for the pressure to overcome this hugely iconic rugby nation. Only a brave man would back against them with home support, and most neutrals will be supporting this team, playing the most exciting and expansive rugby around at this current time.